Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.787369 29.690342 33.003475 37.118944 42.174148 48.294496 56.453595
2025-02-23 22.488417 26.111784 30.607387 36.779835 45.367683 57.498516 77.310373
2025-03-02 19.839408 23.824511 29.087646 36.917251 49.060927 68.995644 110.058705
2025-03-09 17.820420 21.928995 27.613268 36.618557 51.925854 80.847598 158.059848
2025-03-16 16.275046 20.406910 26.335442 36.223629 54.425000 93.775110 236.143052
2025-03-23 15.060473 19.171224 25.247541 35.832975 56.752450 108.363246 381.562140
2025-03-30 14.109911 18.195693 24.393562 35.620730 59.344510 126.451554 742.214771
2025-04-06 13.191120 17.167994 23.313666 34.770223 60.252035 141.071016 1679.148200
2025-04-13 12.877411 17.017712 23.618781 36.550323 68.125666 194.866802 NaN
2025-04-20 12.244737 16.310761 22.900805 36.162194 70.311554 230.250390 NaN
2025-04-27 11.782458 15.833066 22.519131 36.390152 74.426917 293.639818 NaN
2025-05-04 11.394554 15.442045 22.243078 36.788083 79.377036 396.269415 NaN
2025-05-11 10.991026 15.003972 21.851867 36.896175 83.702043 547.859832 NaN
2025-05-18 10.545570 14.467923 21.232968 36.378437 85.628198 715.692277 NaN
2025-05-25 10.207750 14.090264 20.875054 36.427332 89.979998 1132.980357 NaN
2025-06-01 9.855759 13.667058 20.393877 36.095258 92.684743 1838.072859 NaN
2025-06-08 9.524903 13.261213 19.913222 35.691186 94.976199 3477.992499 NaN
2025-06-15 9.221371 12.886157 19.463631 35.301487 97.255357 10294.317868 NaN
2025-06-22 8.958469 12.567815 19.101497 35.090465 100.485430 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.653132 12.161422 18.537441 34.259092 99.947555 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.609197 12.209510 18.884809 35.993848 116.152465 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.377296 11.912976 18.508231 35.615109 118.809772 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.210836 11.725642 18.344089 35.837093 126.249462 NaN NaN